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It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we’ll be laying out the projected playoff field each week as the season goes on. Yeah, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after a weekend of monumental upsets.
First-round byes
1. Texas (5-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns regained the top spot in the AP Top 25 without having to do anything in Week 6. Thanks to Alabama’s loss at Vanderbilt, Texas moved up from No. 2. We figured the voting between Texas and Ohio State would be close, but it wasn’t. The Longhorns play in Dallas on Saturday in their annual rivalry game with No. 19 Oklahoma.
2. Ohio State (5-0, projected Big Ten champion)
Ohio State had a convincing win over Iowa on Saturday. The Hawkeyes didn’t score until the backups were in for the Buckeyes in the second half. Jeremiah Smith fumbled, but he also had another one-handed TD catch and the offense was no match for a very good Iowa defense. The Buckeyes travel to Oregon in Week 7 for a matchup of top-three teams in the game of the week.
3. Miami (6-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes needed a huge comeback to stay undefeated. Cal led 35-10 in the second half before Miami stormed back to grab a 39-38 win with less than 30 seconds to go. The Hurricanes need to stop living so dangerously; they’re bound to lose a game if they keep needing second-half comebacks like they have over the past two weeks.
4. Iowa State (5-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Cyclones pulled away from Baylor Saturday night in a 43-21 home win. Jaylon Jackson and Carson Hansen combined to rush 30 times for 204 yards in the win while Jayden Higgins had eight catches for 116 yards. ISU has a three-headed rushing attack with Jackson, Hansen and Abu Sama III, and Higgins and Jaylin Noel have caught 57 of Rocco Becht’s 87 completions. Iowa State has a good test in Week 7 at a West Virginia team that easily won at Oklahoma State.
First-round games
No. 12 Boise State (4-1, projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Oregon (5-0, at-large)
No one can stop Ashton Jeanty. The Boise State RB was at it again in a half of work against Utah State. Jeanty had 13 carries for 186 yards and three scores before watching the rest of the game from the bench. He had 25 carries for 192 yards and three scores against Oregon when the two teams met in Week 2. The Ducks would host once again in this rematch, but Oregon probably won’t be in the No. 5 spot after playing Ohio State this week.
No. 11 Clemson (4-1, at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (5-0, at-large)
The Tigers are in the playoff picture for the first time all season as they keep winning convincingly following their Week 1 loss to Georgia. Clemson took down Florida State 29-13 in Week 6 as Phil Mafah rushed 25 times for 154 yards. The Tigers have been much, much better on offense since that Georgia game as Cade Klubnik continues to play like one of the better QBs in college football. Penn State easily beat UCLA 27-11 in Week 6 and heads to USC in Week 7 to take on a Trojans team that lost at Minnesota.
No. 10 Ole Miss (4-1, at-large) at No. 7 Georgia (4-1, at-large)
If these two matchups were possible at the end of the season, we’d be fascinated to see if the College Football Playoff selection committee would toggle seedings and see if the rematches could be avoided. Ole Miss is set to host Georgia in November, the Bulldogs have already played Alabama, the Tide head to Tennessee in Week 8 and the Vols go to Athens later this season. If the matchups are unavoidable, they’d certainly be intriguing. Ole Miss had no problems at all against South Carolina in Week 6 while Georgia had a relatively boring win against Auburn.
No. 9 Tennessee (4-1, at-large) at No. 8 Alabama (4-1, at-large)
Both of these teams enter Week 7 off upset losses after the Vols lost at Arkansas and Alabama was stunned by Vanderbilt. Tennessee and Alabama are perfect examples of how rough life in the 16-team SEC is going to be for everyone. It’ll be quite the achievement if anyone can make it through conference play undefeated and the only remaining teams without a conference loss are Texas A&M (3-0), Texas (1-0) and LSU (1-0).
